The Winter That Never Was: Assessing the Aftermath of Colorado’s Warmest Winter

The winter of 2025-2026 was the warmest on record for Colorado, leading to the state’s worst-ever snowpack. This extreme warmth has immediate implications for strained water resources, increased wildfire risk, and the multi-billion-dollar outdoor recreation economy. While Colorado is projected to continue warming by 2050, this specific winter remains an extreme outlier for much of the state.   

This analysis was prepared for a panel session at Colorado Climate Week. We focus on Colorado here, but the issues of warming winter temperatures, degraded snowpack, and the impacts on water resource management, fire risk, and the outdoor recreation economy are relevant across Western North America. 

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This winter in Colorado was unlike any in recorded history. 

Across Colorado, headlines have spent weeks lamenting the winter that never was. By any measure, this winter has been the warmest winter on record in Colorado, and in 8 other western states. In Colorado, average December - January - February temperatures are over 1°F warmer than the previous warmest winter on record, and a whopping 8.4°F warmer than the average winter temperature for the 20th century. 

Colorado’s warm temperatures were also accompanied by below-average (though hardly record-setting) precipitation, setting the stage for an extremely low snowpack. Earlier in the winter, Colorado’s snowpack was identified as very low, but several climatologists suggested that 1977 and 1981 – before the onset of widespread snowpack measurements – may have had worse snow^1,2. Regardless, Colorado watersheds were in bad shape at the end of February, and the state was preparing for a dry summer.  

Then came March. The second half of March was dominated by a massive, persistent heatwave that smashed not only March, but April temperature records across many locations in Colorado and the western U.S. Instead of continuing to build snowpack throughout March, Colorado’s mountains lost snow at rates more commonly seen in May.  Colorado’s snowpack peaked around March 9th³, a month earlier than usual. And on April 1–the date when historical snowpack measurements have been made, and cities, farmers, and utilities start planning their summer water use plans–the Colorado state climatologist’s office confirmed that this is officially Colorado’s worst snowpack on record¹. 

In Colorado, and many other states in the Mountain West, snow is the lifeblood of the rivers. In Colorado, snowmelt provides as much as 80% of the surface water supply to Coloradans⁴. And Colorado’s rivers don’t just supply water to Coloradans. Four major river systems–the Platte, the Arkansas, the Rio Grande, and of course, the Colorado – start in the mountains of Colorado. All in all, 18 other states get at least some water from Colorado rivers⁵. So when Colorado runs short of snow, it’s a nationwide problem. 

While Colorado’s below-average precipitation hasn’t helped the snowpack situation, the primary driver of this year’s worst-ever snowpack is the extremely warm temperatures. And as the planet continues to warm, it’s natural to ask “Is this the new normal?”. To answer that question, the Jupiter science team took a look at historical data and future climate projections for 198 Colorado weather stations with long monitoring records⁶. We analyze what happened this winter and how it impacted Colorado’s environment and people; discuss what could happen this summer in terms of water resources, fire risk, and economic impacts; and finally, explore what future winter temperatures will look like, and whether or not this winter is in fact “the new normal”. 

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This winter, exceptionally warm temperatures meant that much of Colorado lost at least 2 weeks of freezing temperatures. 

The start of the water year (October - March) is a time for snow accumulation and preservation. In these months in the mountains, precipitation switches from rain to snow, and water is stored in the snowpack, to be released into rivers and streams in the spring. To get an estimate of how destructive this winter’s temperatures have been to Colorado’s snowpack, we quantify the number of days at each Colorado weather station where the minimum temperature drops below freezing – a metric we’ll call freezing days. With this metric, we assume that when temperature drops below 32°F (0°C), that location is able to accumulate or preserve snow for at least part of the day. If the temperature stays above 32°F (0°C), snow is not being accumulated or preserved that day.  

When we look at the average number of freezing days in Colorado for 1990 - 2025, the minimum temperatures are typically below freezing for at least 60% of days across the entire state – and in the mountains, temperatures drop below freezing nearly every night in October - March. But in the 2025-2026 water year so far (October 1, 2025 - March 31, 2026), temperatures have been well above average. Every site but one had fewer than normal freezing days. 70% of analyzed sites lost at least 2 weeks of freezing days; and 35% of these analyzed sites, including many in the Denver area, lost at least 4 weeks of freezing days.

The loss of snowpack is the single biggest consequence of such a warm winter (though it’s not the only one; warm temperatures can interfere with dormancy in plants and animals, leaving them vulnerable to late season freezes; and can raise insect pressure). A low snowpack means less water melts out to make it to streams and rivers, and generally makes streamflow and drought predictions harder. The water that does come often comes earlier than normal, when water users and ecosystems may be less prepared. Low snowpack means increased wildfire risk and a longer wildfire season. And a low snowpack is bad news for outdoor recreation; not just ski areas and communities, which have lost visitors and revenue, but also river-dependent summer recreation like whitewater rafting and fishing.     

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Prepare for impending water shortages, high fire danger, and restricted recreation.  

At the beginning of April, it’s still too early to know exactly what this spring and summer will hold. However, it’s increasingly likely that this summer will be challenging for Colorado in terms of water resources, fire risk, and outdoor recreation. 

Low snowpack strains water resources 

A low snowpack puts great strain on water resources in regions, such as Colorado and the Mountain West, that depend on snowmelt to feed rivers and streams. Lower snowpack means less water will be available to rivers, streams, and their end users in the spring and summer. During warm winters like this one, more water than usual is lost to evaporation, putting a further strain on an already weak snowpack⁷. And when warm temperatures bring earlier snowmelt, even more of this water is lost to warm air and dry soil, further compounding the problem. 

Typically, Colorado cities and farmers plan their summer water in early April, using measurements of April 1 snowpack. Denver has already enacted Stage 1 drought restrictions, as have several other Front Range cities, and the state has activated its Drought Task Force⁸.  For Denver Water, the goal is to reduce average customer water usage by 20%, primarily by imposing restrictions on outdoor water use. By activating drought restrictions early, Denver Water is hoping to get a head start on the situation, and get customers conserving water as early as possible. Other cities and towns will likely follow suit in the coming weeks. 

Farmers who depend on water from Colorado’s rivers are also planning for less water this summer. In previous dry years, farmers in regions like southwestern Colorado have received only 10% of the irrigation water they’d planned for⁹. This year’s record-low snowpack is also coming in the midst of stalled water negotiations for the Colorado River. After this winter, the water level at Lake Powell is projected to drop below 3,500 feet–the minimum level needed for hydropower generation¹⁰, leaving businesses and communities scrambling for energy. And with a record-low snowpack across the West¹¹, relief from upstream reservoirs could be difficult to come by.    

Low snow years followed by increased fire risk

As the likelihood of summer drought and water shortage increases, talk naturally turns to fire risk. Winters with low snowpack and early snow melt prime forests and watersheds to dry out faster, burn more, and have more severe fires. When the snowpack is low, wildfire fuels dry out more, and incidence of severe fires can increase¹². Early snowmelt is also associated with larger fires, and a longer fire season. In fact, the timing of snowmelt is the single biggest predictor of a fire’s burn area¹². Following warm winters, more pine beetles survive the winter, and go on to infect and kill ponderosa pines⁹, leaving the dead trees as ideal wildfire fuels. And even if April and May end up being much wetter than the past few months, spring rains can paradoxically increase wildfire risk, especially in grasslands¹³. In Colorado, most residents will recall that the state’s all-time worst fire year (2020) came on the heels of a warm, dry winter and a low snow year.    

It’s worth noting that ignitions of fires are still rare events, and background conditions with higher fire risk do not guarantee catastrophic wildfire. Big fires still require the wrong trigger in the wrong place, at the wrong time. But addressing increased fire risk can help land use managers and local officials plan ahead and take preventative actions, such as fire bans, earlier than normal. Furthermore, with such widespread drought and snowpack issues across the West, fire in other states could affect Coloradans this summer. Even if Colorado manages to avoid major wildfires this season, smoke from other Western states can impact air quality in Colorado^14,15. And the impacts of fire continue long after they are extinguished–post-fire landscapes see more mudslides and flash flooding¹⁶. Fires can go on to alter future snowpacks, with burned areas reflecting less sunlight and enhancing local snowmelt¹². 

This winter has cost Colorado’s snowsports industry millions.

The impact of this warm, low-snow winter on Colorado’s ski industry has been stark. Colorado’s ski towns have lost millions this winter, with fewer visitors occupying hotel rooms, buying meals, renting ski gear, getting gas, and paying for parking. The town of Vail expects a 5% decrease in revenue after this winter, corresponding to $4.5 million less for the town’s residents¹⁷. At the resorts themselves, ski school revenue was down about 15%, with similar losses for on-mountain dining revenue¹⁸. And ski resort employees have faced reduced hours, and seasons ending weeks earlier than normal¹⁹. 

After a difficult season for winter recreation, summer recreation faces its own challenges. 

While skiing and snowsports have been the focus of the last few months, summer recreation will also likely face a difficult summer. Whitewater rafting outfitters are preparing for shorter seasons, with limited or no ability to run trips later in the summer²⁰. Anglers are anticipating a summer with more time-of-day restrictions, or even multi-day stream closures–to preserve the health of the fish population, fishing is often banned when water temperatures get too high. 

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Even in a warmer future, this winter is still exceptional. 

The good news? This winter should not be considered “a new normal”, at least not yet. When we studied ClimateScore™ Global’s 2050 climate projections for Colorado wintertime temperatures (October - March), we saw that this winter would still be considered unusual, even in 2050, and even for the realistic worst-case emissions scenario (ssp585). Colorado winters are expected to see average temperature increases of around 2 - 3°F in the next 25 years. Colorado’s high country and especially southwestern Colorado are projected to see at least 2.5°F. 

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But despite increasing winter temperatures, winters as warm as this one will still be unusual across much of the state. At 80% of the sites we studied, this winter’s temperatures would still be warmer than the average winter temperatures in 2050. At over 60% of these weather stations, this winter’s temperatures would still be in the top third warmest winters in 2050. And at 47% of locations, this winter’s temperatures would still be considered extreme–that is, this winter’s temperatures were above the 95th percentile. 

Although this winter would still be above average for most of the state, for many of Colorado’s high mountain areas, and southwestern Colorado–where winter temperatures are increasing the most – more winters may start to resemble this one. At ski areas like Aspen, as well as many Front Range ski areas like Winter Park or Breckenridge, this winter’s temperatures would still be considered extreme in 2050, approaching or exceeding the 95th percentile of temperature predictions. But for some ski areas, such as the relatively low-elevation Steamboat or southwestern Colorado ski areas like Telluride or Purgatory, winters like this one will likely become less remarkable. 

Regardless, for much of Colorado – especially the Front Range, the eastern Plains, and the Western Slope – it’s not likely that most winters will be as bad as this one.

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The future of Colorado’s multi-billion dollar outdoor recreation industry.

Colorado ski areas must prepare for a warmer future.

There’s no doubt that Colorado ski areas will need to prepare for shorter seasons. Although most years won’t be as bad as 2025 - 2026, low snow years like these can provide opportunities for the snowsports industries to test their adaptation and risk mitigation strategies. 

Colorado ski resorts have already lost an estimated 6 days of skiing due to climate change¹⁷, with some resorts estimating that they’ve lost a month of skiing since the 1980s. By 2050, Colorado resorts could lose an average of 1 month of skiing if warming continues unabated²¹. ClimateScore Global projections indicate that Colorado ski areas could lose 6 - 8% of their cold days (that is, days where the average temperature is below 32°F) by 2050. Since making snow requires temperatures below 32°F, these cold days can be thought of as snowmaking or snow-preserving days. And while Colorado may actually see modest increases in wintertime precipitation (ClimateScore Global estimates a 4 - 8% increase in winter precipitation by 2050), warmer temperatures often mean that a growing fraction of this precipitation will fall as rain instead of snow, further exacerbating snow loss²².   

However, Colorado’s high elevations and drier, continental climate mean that the state is in a more climate-resilient position than most. Colorado’s projected snowpack losses are smaller than those projected for the West Coast, with the possible exception of the San Juan Mountains in the southwestern part of the state²³. Indeed, at Colorado’s highest ski resorts, such as Arapaho Basin or Breckenridge, slightly warmer temperatures could actually lead to increased snowfall, as the heaviest snow tends to fall between 15 and 32°F²⁴. 

And while snowmaking is still limited in the Rockies²⁵, Colorado resorts have continued to invest in snowmaking to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars. This investment in snowmaking has already extended the ski season by an estimated 1 - 2 weeks²⁶. Snowmaking, combined with opening additional high-elevation terrain, and investing in snow preservation techniques, can help Colorado resorts adapt to a warmer climate, and survive low-snow years like this one²⁶. Cross-country ski areas and snowmobile trails, with limited snowmaking infrastructures and lower elevation trails; and backcountry ski touring and snowshoeing, which often occur on public lands with no infrastructure at all, face stiffer challenges²⁸. 

And while ski towns have lost visitors and money this winter, the operators of the ski areas have not lost as much as you think. The U.S.’s two large ski conglomerates, Epic and Alterra, strongly push their season and multi-day pass products, which must be purchased before the start of the ski season starts and are typically non-refundable. This year, 2.3 million people purchased non-refundable Epic Pass products before the season, providing over $1 billion in ticket sales before the lifts ever started spinning²⁷. And while visits to Vail’s resorts dropped 20% through January 5, lift revenue only dropped 2%²⁷. For the 14 Colorado ski resorts affiliated with either the Epic Pass or Alterra’s Ikon Pass, guaranteed season pass revenue can be thought of as a climate adaptation of its own.  

The U.S. ski industry as a whole has already lost more than $5 billion to climate change over the past two decades, with lost skier visits and increased costs in snowmaking costing the U.S. ski industry an estimated $262 million per year²⁹. Ski areas are projected to lose 2 - 4 weeks of skiing even under a low-emissions future, with high emissions futures costing as much as 60 days in some areas. In Colorado, snow sports contribute an estimated $2 billion per year to the state’s economy³⁰. Colorado’s snow sports economy is by far the largest of any U.S. state, comprising over 20% of the U.S.’s total snowsports economy. But climate change could cost Colorado resorts millions of visitors, and hundreds of millions in lost revenue, by 2050¹⁷.           

Colorado’s summer recreation industry must also adapt to warmer winters.

Snow is not just important for Colorado’s winter recreation industry–snowmelt and rivers are critical for summer recreation as well. Colorado’s rivers see more whitewater rafters than any other state, with the Arkansas River being the most visited in the country³¹. Fishing is also serious business in Colorado, with recreational fishing contributing an estimated $2.3 billion to Colorado’s economy, and providing over 15,000 jobs.

For whitewater rafters low snow years and early snowmelt mean shorter seasons and earlier peak flow. The best days may occur before outfitters are fully staffed and ready, and the lucrative months of peak summer may see few to no trips. Outfitters estimate that this early end to the season could cost them up to 50% of revenue this year³². For anglers, the risk is even higher. As Colorado’s streams warm, the number of hours and days where it’s too warm to fish for trout will increase. Trout are very temperature sensitive, and when streams warm above 70°F, wildlife managers often enact fishing restrictions in order to preserve the health of the trout population. And as streams warm, trout retreat to colder waters, often at higher elevations. Over time, this displacement can lead to isolated trout populations, and make trout more vulnerable to other disasters like wildfires, landslides, and flash flooding. This also means that the prime fishing grounds could move elsewhere, away from existing infrastructure and public access.  

Colorado streams could warm as much as 2°F by 2050, meaning that some Colorado streams could see as much as a five-fold increase in days where at least part of the day is too warm to fish³³. The peak summer months of June through August are both the most at risk for too-warm streams, and the months where fly fishing outfitters make an estimated 65% of their income.  Ultimately, ecologists estimate that 8 - 31% of suitable trout habits could be lost to climate change in the Rockies³³. Warmer streams have been shown to be more sensitive to temperature variations, meaning further warming could have nonlinear impacts³⁴. 

Like winter recreation, the summer recreation industry can also adapt. Anglers and fly fishing guides can increase trips and offerings in the fall season, which is more resilient to high temperatures than the summer. Fishing guides can also shift trips to be at cooler times of the day, or to higher elevation locations (though the fish in these locations are often smaller than the lower elevation Gold Medal streams that make Colorado famous). Some outfitters are encouraging customers to spend their summers fishing for less environmentally stressed species, such as bass, instead of the much more sensitive trout. And for rafting outfitters, the Arkansas River’s Voluntary Flow Management Program (VFMP) may provide a blueprint for the future³⁵. On the Arkansas, the VFMP recreation supports recreational activities with planned and regulated water releases throughout the summer. Because of this, outfitters on the Arkansas tend to fare better during low-snow years due to the active management and collaborative, recreation-minded management. While programs like the VFMP will not work for every river, the VFMP could be a model for other rivers in terms of balancing the interests of water management, ecosystems, and outdoor reaction interests. 

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The Bottom Line: Colorado winters are vital for the future of outdoor recreation for the state and the country.

The American outdoor recreation economy is a growing powerhouse. In 2024, outdoor recreation generated $1.3 trillion in economic output, representing $697 billion in value added, and 2.4% of the gross domestic product³⁶. The outdoor recreation economy is a bigger economic engine than motor vehicle manufacturing, agriculture and forestry, and oil, gas, and mining³⁰. In Colorado, outdoor recreation is a major economic engine, creating an estimated 137,000 jobs and $9.4 billion in wages³⁷. Colorado’s outdoor recreation economy punches well above its weight nationally–Colorado has the 10th highest total economic output in the outdoor recreation economy, despite being only the 20th most-populous state. And when it comes to snowsports, no one contributes more than Colorado. About 10% of the nationwide outdoor economic activity came from snowsports in 2024–over 20%, or $2 billion, of that came from Colorado. Low snow years in Colorado don’t just affect Coloradans–they impact the entire outdoor recreation economy. 

Most winters will not be as bad as this one. In the coming years, Colorado and the western U.S. will have high snow years, average snow years, and yes, more low snow years. But as the climate warms, the background state becomes more fragile, extreme weather becomes more volatile, and stresses and impacts can compound. Low snow years such as this one can provide communities, ecosystems, water resource managers, agriculture, and the outdoor recreation industry opportunities to test their adaptation strategies, and plan for the future. 

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Additional Resources

More learn about how Jupiter’s science and research are redefining climate risk analytics.

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References

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